By Manuel Galiñanes |

President Donald Trump’s recent policy proposals regarding ending the war in Ukraine and displacing Palestinians from Gaza have sparked widespread international debate. These decisions, marked by unilateralism, disregard for international rules and a willingness to sideline European allies, reflect an authoritarian approach to governance and pose significant risks to European security and global stability. To counter these threats and ensure a stronger voice in world affairs, Europe must move, as discussed below, towards a more integrated political structure under a European Federation that transcends the limitations of the current European Union (EU).

The conflict in Ukraine: A shift in US diplomacy and a threat to European stability

The launch of peace talks to resolve the ongoing war in Ukraine between the US and Russia without the involvement of Ukraine itself and the EU has left European allies in shock. Remarkably, Trump’s strategy includes offering concessions to Russia, such as dismissing Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership and recognizing Russian control over certain Ukrainian territories. This unilateral decision marks a significant departure from previous US policy and undermines the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, thereby ignoring the collective efforts of NATO and the EU, which have played a critical role in supporting Ukraine. Furthermore, the suggestion of holding elections in Ukraine after achieving a ceasefire, so that Volodymyr Zelensky can be removed from office and replaced by a new president in line with the final US-Russia deal, has been met with skepticism. A confidential document prepared by the US administration reported by The Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/17/revealed-trump-confidential-plan-ukraine-stranglehold/) reveals a series of unfair conditions that the US wants to impose on Ukraine, ranging from the exploitation of its ports and infrastructure to access to its oil, gas and other natural resources by the US, which represents a greater economic burden than the reparations imposed on Germany under the 1919 Treaty of Versailles. Trump’s comments referring to Zelensky as a dictator and the cause of the Russian invasion of Ukraine also personify a leader who has lost all reference to reality and diplomatic behavior.

Not surprisingly, some European leaders have expressed apprehension about being excluded from these critical discussions. They warn that any deal reached without Ukraine and the EU’s participation could undermine regional security and stability. Similarly, NATO allies highlight the need to include both Ukraine and Europe in any peace negotiations to ensure a comprehensive and lasting resolution.

The Gaza Displacement Plan: A violation of international standards

Equally alarming is Trump’s proposal to displace the entire Palestinian population from Gaza to neighboring countries like Egypt and Jordan, taking the territory under US control for redevelopment as a vacation spot. This plan, which lacks detailed logistics, has been met with widespread condemnation from the international community, viewing it as a violation of international law and a disregard for Palestinian rights. The forced relocation of a population is explicitly prohibited under the Geneva Convention (https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gciv-1949/article-49), making Trump’s proposal not only unethical but also illegal. Human rights organizations have called the proposal ethnic cleansing, stating that the forced displacement violates international law. What’s more, the unconditional support for the Israeli right, which gives a blank check to the most extremist sectors of the country, is a recipe for failure to achieve justice and a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

European leaders and Arab countries have rejected the plan outright. France, Germany and Spain have also criticized the proposal, underscoring the importance of a two-state solution and the right of Palestinians to remain in their homeland. Furthermore, EU officials have rejected the plan and Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, has stated that “people cannot be moved by force”, also underlining the EU’s commitment to a two-state solution and the protection of Palestinian rights.

Implications for European security and the global situation

The Trump administration’s recent decisions have far-reaching consequences for European security and the international order. By excluding NATO and the EU from critical negotiations and proposing unilateral solutions, the US risks weakening transatlantic alliances and institutions that have historically guaranteed stability in Europe. Their actions threaten to create a power vacuum that could be exploited by states such as Russia and China, further destabilizing the global balance of power.

In the Middle East, the Gaza displacement plan risks exacerbating regional tensions and undermining decades of diplomatic efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The proposal has already sparked outrage among Palestinians and their supporters, which could fuel further violence and radicalisation. Furthermore, the implementation of such a plan can potentially lead to an increase in refugee flows into Europe which, in turn, would increase regional tensions, strain Europe’s resources, and complicate its foreign policy objectives.

Trump’s willingness to cut deals with Russia at the expense of Ukraine and his disregard for human rights standards in Gaza demonstrate the dangers of a world order dictated by the whims of a single leader who is driven more by potential economic gains than by respect for international law. Undermining the US relationship with the EU can have serious consequences by threatening the viability of NATO and the EU itself and exposing them to the danger of disintegration and internal conflict. In addition, Trump’s myopic and confrontational political approach, which prioritizes his own national interest, ignoring the moral consequences of his policies and disregarding US’s allies, may backfire by disrupting and degrading the US federal government, with the potential to trigger a domestic political, social and economic crisis.

Europe must no longer be a passive observer, but the failure of EU leaders to reach agreement among themselves on how to address Trump’s policies highlights the EU’s weakness. Even reaching a consensus to increase defense spending through an intergovernmental agreement will not be enough to achieve a unified and effective security and defense structure.

The weakness of a fragmented Europe and the advantages of a European Federation

Although the EU has long been a champion of multilateralism and diplomacy, its fragmented political structure based on treaties between Member States is plagued by bureaucracy and regulation making it less competitive against other economies and limiting its ability to respond decisively to global crises. Thus, while the EU has taken important measures to support Ukraine through sanctions on Russia and military aid, its efforts are often hampered by the need for unanimous decisions among its member states. Similarly, Europe’s response to Trump’s proposal on the forced displacement of Palestinians has been quick in condemnation but lacking in concrete countermeasures.

The EU remains a collection of sovereign states with divergent foreign policies and, as such, will find it difficult to present a unified front against external pressures. The lack of a centralized authority weakens Europe’s strategic autonomy and leaves it vulnerable to eccentric policies by unpredictable leaders. However, a European Federation – a fully sovereign political entity with a centralized executive, a unified foreign policy and an integrated defense – would represent a significant evolution of the EU by moving towards a more integrated political and economic union, thus providing the strength necessary to confront authoritarian leaders and protect European interests.

Indeed, a federal Europe would bring key benefits such as: (i) a unified and integrated military strategy that, with a common European army, could build stronger security and defense and be able to quickly respond to internal and external threats; (ii) a unified foreign policy that gives Europe the ability to negotiate peace agreements and trade deals as a single entity and to exert influence in global conflicts; (iii) a more cohesive economy and greater energy independence which, together with a common industrial and technological strategy and greater fiscal and economic coordination, would improve competitiveness in the global economy and reduce its vulnerability to external pressures.  Today’s green transition and digital revolution represent a critical point for Europe to adjust its strategy to the new challenges of the global economy, a challenge that can only be met through greater integration and unity. With this vision, the Federal Alliance of European Federalists (FAEF) drafted a Constitution for the Federated States of Europe in 2022 (The making of the Constitution for the Federated States of Europe, 2022) to strengthen governance structures and put an end to the democratic deficit and inefficiency of the EU.

In a world increasingly defined by multipolar power dynamics, a European Federation would serve as a stabilising force. By fostering strong alliances with democratic allies and strengthening multilateral institutions, the federation could also play a decisive role in maintaining global peace and security, addressing global challenges – from climate change to cybersecurity threats – and supporting pro-democracy movements around the world to counter authoritarian influences and protect fundamental freedoms.

Trump’s autocratic and disruptive policies must serve as a catalyst to move towards a European Federation that will achieve a true political, economic and social union of the continent. The current adversity can be turned into an opportunity to boost the stagnant European project. Unity under a European Federation is the only guarantee of success in the face of a new world order in which human rights, the rule of law and multilateralism are challenged. Of course, greater integration within a European Federation would ensure that Europe is not simply reacting to US policies but is actively shaping global events. Furthermore, a strong and united Europe would offer a democratic counterweight to the rising tide of authoritarianism around the world and, by upholding human rights, the rule of law and multilateralism, a European Federation would reinforce democratic principles within Europe and abroad.

Conclusions

President Trump’s recent policy proposals regarding Ukraine and Gaza have been characterized as irrational and authoritarian. The exclusion of key stakeholders and the pursuit of unilateral actions not only defies international norms but also poses significant risks to European security and the continent’s influence in global affairs. Today, we find ourselves in a dangerous moment in which the future of Europe’s and the world’s security is at stake, underscoring the need to strengthen European political structures to make them more democratic and accountable. For this reason, the construction of a European Federation represents a step towards a more stable and equitable future.

The era of relying on the United States as the ultimate guarantor of Europe’s security is coming to an end. Trump’s authoritarian and irrational decisions highlight the urgent need for Europe to become a fully sovereign geopolitical power. Only by evolving into a European Federation will the continent be able to secure its future, defend democracy and assert its role in world affairs. In this way, a federated Europe would not only enhance its own security but would also contribute to a more stable global order. In addition, a European Federation can become an important step towards the formation of a World Federation necessary to address the existential threats to global humanity – security, environmental protection and combating climate change, sustainable development and economy, people’s well-being, migration – in an effective and democratic manner. It is time for Europe to take its destiny into its own hands and build a federation that can not only safeguard its security in an increasingly turbulent world and promote its prosperity, but also contribute to a more stable and balanced international system.

Manuel Galiñanes,
President of the Federal Alliance of European Federalists (FAEF)